AGP Executive Report

Drought Pressure on EU Farms: Germany’s grain harvest is forecast to fall about 7% after a dry spring and June heatwave, with DBV warning of severe regional crop damage and higher input costs. Water Stress in the UK: A new hosepipe ban starts for Wessex Water customers as England tops 27 million people under restrictions, with drought still biting even as some rain is forecast. Milk and Feed Relief: Dairygold raised its July milk price and is offering a €20/t rebate on bulk dairy and beef feeds to help members manage drought-driven forage shortfalls. Global Dairy Prices Lift: At the latest Global Dairy Trade auction, most milk powders rose while butter fell, as buyers watch potential El Niño disruption and Northern Hemisphere heat impacts. Aquaculture Investment: Oceanloop secured $44.5m to expand Europe’s giant grouper farming using RAS tech, with construction starting late 2026 in Germany. Animal Welfare Debate: LSE researchers warn that AI in farming can prioritize productivity by preventing “problematic” animal behaviors rather than addressing underlying welfare causes.

Extreme Heat & Wildfires: Belgium’s High Fens peat blaze is contained but still smoulders underground; two firefighters were hospitalised and air support from multiple countries continues as residents return home. Drought & Farm Incomes: UK farmers face a grim outlook after the driest July on record; Andy Burnham’s £65m drought support is being criticised as “a drop in the ocean” by industry voices. EU Budget Pressure: Estonian farmers plan a protest in Tallinn against proposed near-halving of EU funding for agriculture and the food industry in the next MFF. Aquaculture Expansion: Oceanloop secured backing including the EIB to scale land-based aquaculture in Europe, targeting a new species for commercial rollout. Food Safety & Systems: Liberia’s Food Authority launched a 2026–2030 strategic plan with EU support to strengthen food safety and public health. Animal Welfare in Food: UK regulators issued warning letters over alleged welfare breaches at Highland salmon farms, reigniting scrutiny of salmon farming practices. Organic vs Environment: A UK study says organic free-range egg farming could be twice as bad for the environment as caged systems, despite welfare benefits. Agriculture & EU Enlargement: Research argues Ukraine and Moldova’s agriculture is central and highly vulnerable in EU accession, with potential knock-on effects for EU farming and CAP adjustments.

Wildfire Aid and Fallout (France): French PM Sébastien Lecornu faced jeers in Gironde as residents accused authorities of sacrificing villages to protect luxury areas; he said fire-rebuild support could top €100m, including tax and social security exemptions, plus fast-track rebuilding. Heatwave Pressure on Farms (Europe): Multiple reports paint an “unprecedented” crisis for European agriculture as successive heatwaves and drought slash yields, with France vegetable shortages cited as severe and grain losses mounting. Belgium Fire Near Germany (EU emergency response): Belgium’s biggest-ever wildfire in the High Fens nature reserve was slowed by rain but not contained, prompting evacuations and EU-backed aerial support as it crept toward the German border. Drought Stress in the UK (wildlife impacts): In England, a rapidly drying pond left hundreds of fish dead, with locals criticizing the Environment Agency for slow help amid drought conditions. Policy and Markets (UK/EU context): UK drought support for farmers is being rolled out as heat threatens harvests, while EU rules and trade pressures continue to shape farm costs and supply. Bee Safety (UK/Europe pollinators): New Hampshire regulators are set to consider restricting bee-toxic neonicotinoids, echoing Europe’s earlier move to largely ban them.

Wildfire Crisis in Belgium and France: A record wildfire in Belgium’s High Fens nature reserve has more than doubled in size in 24 hours, triggering mass evacuations and prompting EU air support as the blaze threatens the German border; in Gironde, France, the worst fires in decades have already destroyed over 40,000 hectares and displaced hundreds of thousands, with residents now focused on reconstruction and insurance claims. UK Drought Aid for Farmers: UK PM Andy Burnham announced a £65m package for drought-hit farmers, alongside fire-safety alerts as heat and low yields raise fears for food supply and farm incomes. Heatwave Fallout for Europe’s Economy: In Italy and across Europe, heatwaves are cutting hospitality turnover and exposing a wider insurance protection gap, with estimates pointing to huge economic losses and far smaller insured payouts. Drought’s Pressure on Food and Water Systems: Low river levels are disrupting logistics and production, including at major ports like Rotterdam, while drought is also driving wider crop and feed stress across the continent. EU Rules and Cocoa Farmers: West African cocoa growers face rising compliance pressure as the EU anti-deforestation law nears, with exporters pushing farm mapping to protect EU market access. Agri-Tech and Processing Moves: Denmark’s pig sector faces reforms under a new government, while Italy’s Inalca highlights circular approaches in meat processing and value recovery.

Wildfire Crisis in Europe: Belgium’s High Fens blaze has burned about 3,000 hectares, with evacuations near the German border and EU aircraft plus crews from Belgium, Germany and Luxembourg joining the fight; Greece also reported deadly fires near Athens. Dairy Under Pressure: Britain’s AHDB warns bluetongue escalation in Devon and Cornwall could further weigh on milk yields already hit by heat stress and drought, with forage shortages pushing earlier silage feeding. Heat-Driven Risk Gap: A Moody’s analysis says extreme heat and unreliable water are converging into operational and “stranded-asset” risk, widening the insurance and preparedness gap across sectors including agriculture. Farm Land Use Shift: An English farmer’s 1988 wheat set-aside decision helped create a protected woodland reserve now supporting threatened birds, showing how policy-driven land changes can reshape habitats. Agri-Trade Tensions: US-EU trade talks are increasingly “managed confrontation,” with disputes over sustainability rules and regulation spilling into agriculture and seafood market access.

Wildfire Crisis in Belgium: A record wildfire in eastern Belgium’s High Fens has burned about 2,700 hectares and forced around 600 residents to evacuate, with EU firefighting aircraft deployed as smoke and winds threaten nearby communities. Heatwave Insurance Gap: New reporting links Europe’s fifth heatwave to major business losses that often fall outside traditional coverage, with economists warning of huge economic damage and a growing protection gap. Drought and River Collapse: Satellite and monitoring data show worsening drought across central and western Europe, with rivers including the Loire, Po, Rhine and Danube at record-low levels—raising pressure on farming, transport and energy. UK Water Reality Check: Despite drought and reservoir shortfalls, UK groundwater is reported in “remarkable” condition, offering some relief for public water supplies while surface stress bites. Farm Economics Under Pressure: In Germany, hop farms face closures as heat and falling beer demand squeeze yields and prices, while in the UK farmland sales in East England are rising as established farmers buy up neighbouring acres. Sustainable Farming Push: PepsiCo says regenerative practices now cover millions of acres in its supply base and is working with partners on low-carbon fertilisers and precision farming for EU/UK potato growers.

Wildfire Response: The EU has deployed three helicopters and two water bomber aircraft to tackle a record wildfire in eastern Belgium’s High Fens, with evacuations ordered for villages near the blaze as it has already scorched about 1,600 hectares. Drought & Food Security: UK drought is tightening its grip, with farmers reporting dry soils and crop stress while officials warn further restrictions could follow, raising fears for the wider food supply. Livestock & Farm Inputs: Ireland’s nitrates derogation has been extended for 2026-2028, allowing around 7,000 dairy farmers higher stocking rates under tighter nutrient storage and slurry rules. Heat Impacts on Farm Work: In Pakistan’s Sindh, date workers report unbearable heat, with heatstroke and fainting becoming more common during the harvest. Policy Pressure on Agriculture: Britain’s government has unveiled a £65m support package for drought-hit farmers as extreme weather threatens harvests and could push up grocery prices.

Heat & Drought Pressure: Western Europe’s first two summer months are the hottest on record, with dry soils, falling rivers and fast-moving fires raising risks for crops, livestock and food supply. UK Farm Fallout: England’s drought is declared across 71% of the country, pushing farmers to cut yields and even stop cereal growing for the first time in a century, while drought aid packages of £65m are being rolled out as shoppers brace for higher prices. Bluetongue Spread: BTV-3 is moving fast, with Scotland confirming its first cases and vets urging vaccination and heightened alert across cattle and sheep. Wildfire Response: UK PM Andy Burnham warns people not to light fires in “tinderbox” conditions after major blazes destroyed homes and triggered nationwide mobile alerts. Livestock Trade Watch: Ireland reports 270,000+ cattle exported so far in 2026, with calf exports still holding up despite transport uncertainty. Agri-innovation at Sea: The Netherlands harvested seaweed grown between 139 offshore wind turbines, testing whether offshore renewables can also support marine farming. Local Governance & Farming: Norfolk residents complain about farm stench and unanswered emails, highlighting how local pressure shapes rural outcomes.

Wildfire emergency in the UK: England and Wales issued mass phone alerts warning people to avoid anything that could spark blazes, including disposable barbecues, campfires and fireworks, as the government deploys extra firefighting support and prepares financial help for services. Heat-driven drought pressure on farming: Across Europe, record heat and drought are shrinking harvests and drying rivers, with farmers forced to tap winter feed early and livestock sectors under strain. Greece feta under threat: Sheep and goat pox is wiping out flocks in Greece, triggering compulsory herd slaughter and raising costs for farmers already facing delayed compensation, putting feta supply chains at risk. EU connectivity and agriculture: The EU’s 5G Observatory workshop highlighted uneven advanced 5G rollout and the growing role of private networks in sectors including agriculture, as Europe looks toward 6G readiness. EU water stress and inland shipping: Low Rhine and other river levels are disrupting transport and exposing wider resource vulnerabilities, adding pressure to food and supply chains. Policy watch: France’s constitutional court cleared assisted dying legislation, a reminder that social reforms are moving alongside climate and food-system stress.

Heat & Drought Fallout: Germany’s farmers’ association warns of below-average grain harvests and possible total losses in southern regions, with feed crops failing and livestock likely needing earlier slaughter. Water Stress: In the Netherlands, farmers say drought is forcing restrictions on irrigation, while across Europe heat is already cutting milk flows and shrinking crop prospects. Milk Market: Ornua reports late-June heatwaves hit milk collections in Germany and France, with the EU milk output outlook for 2026 scaled back. Food Prices Pressure: UK drought and record heat are pushing up vegetable prices, with farmers reporting “suntanned” brassicas and misshapen cucumbers. Supply Chain & War Risk: Ukraine is seeking a Black Sea civilian shipping truce as attacks disrupt grain terminals and threaten harvest trade. Agri-Resilience Moves: Heineken UK launches a regenerative barley programme, paying incentives and agronomic support to help growers build drought-ready supply chains. Biodiversity & Land Use: A Cornwall rewilding project released 21 white storks, while UN talks urge faster action to meet biodiversity targets.

Heat & water stress: Britain logged its hottest day of the year (38.1C in west London) as drought and wildfires spread, while France pushed toward ~41C in parts—raising fresh alarms for crops, livestock and food supply. Hydropower & power reliability: Romania shut its only operating nuclear plant (Cernavodă) after Danube water levels fell to record lows, with knock-on risks for agriculture and industry that depend on stable energy. Drought hitting farming: Riverford Organic warned of vegetable shortages as heatwaves and depleted reservoirs cut yields and availability. Solar vs farmland: Portugal’s agriculture minister urged keeping solar off productive farmland, with dual-use raised panels as the only acceptable compromise—after farmers challenged approvals affecting dryland cereal and pasture. Aquaculture debate: Spain’s aquaculture push is being questioned as farmed fish are fed with wild fish inputs, undermining the “save the oceans” message. Ukraine grain logistics: Ukraine’s farmers face renewed pressure as Black Sea port disruptions and attacks threaten harvest flows, while Moldova says rail transit of Ukrainian goods won’t harm its own exporters.

Heat & Drought Pressure: Europe’s drought is biting hard, with farmers from the Netherlands to Bosnia and Italy reporting crop stress and water limits; Triodos warns the EU could lose about 1% of GDP in 2026 as heatwaves and drought intensify. UK Water & Food Security: England is under amber heat health alerts as drought covers nearly three-quarters of the country, while analysts warn of a worst food security crisis in decades. Water Infrastructure Strain: Euronews reports nearly a quarter of treated water is lost to leaks across Europe, underlining how ageing pipes worsen scarcity. River Shipping Clash (Germany): Germany’s ministers are split on whether to dredge waterways or restore them naturally as low Rhine/Danube levels disrupt cargo. Black Sea Grain Disruption: Russia-Ukraine attacks are damaging Black Sea grain terminals, forcing rerouting and raising global supply risk during harvest. Livestock Health (Scotland): A second bluetongue case (BTV-3) is confirmed in south-west Scotland, with restrictions and euthanasia in place. Soil Data Open-Source: Varda Foundation open-sources SoilHive to help countries share trusted soil data while keeping national control. Agri Trade Signals: Ireland’s grazing farms rank among the lowest stocked in the EU, and Irish hay traders report demand from France, Holland and Switzerland as European supplies run short. EU Agri-Food Policy Watch: EU pesticide rules are set to affect costs and prices, with debate growing over impacts on imports and food bills.

Heat & Drought Pressure: Swiss Re says insured wildfire losses in Europe are rising 8–11% a year in real terms since 1970, even as first-half catastrophe losses came in 16% below the 10-year average—warning that risk hasn’t gone away as hotter, drier conditions fuel bigger blazes. UK Farm Fallout: With drought gripping the UK, potato harvest damage is raising fears of a crisp shortage and higher prices, as farmers struggle to irrigate and groundwater fails to replenish. Bluetongue Vaccines: UK bluetongue cases are surging on the southwest coast, driving “unprecedented” demand for vaccines; suppliers say they’re pulling stock through Europe and urging Irish farmers to review vaccination status ahead of next season. Water Stress in France: France is imposing water limits across about 70% of the country as heatwaves intensify, with Po River levels also reported low—raising pressure on farms and water supplies. Grain Market Shock: Euronext wheat jumped after Ukraine attacks hit Russian grain export terminals in Novorossiysk, threatening Black Sea shipment flows and shifting expectations for global supply. Agrivoltaics in Practice: Nestlé is running a solar setup above a working cow pasture in Bavaria, aiming to supply about a quarter of factory electricity while keeping grazing and hay production going.

UK Heat & Drought Response: Prime Minister Andy Burnham is set to chair an emergency COBRA meeting as Britain braces for a fifth heatwave, with temperatures near 38C, worsening wildfires and drought. Fire chiefs report 966 wildfires in England and Wales this year, and farming groups warn of production hits. Water Stress for Agriculture: Southern Water has applied for a rare drought order that could restrict non-essential business water use in Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, affecting 165,000 people—another pressure point for farms and rural supply chains. Livestock Health Watch: Poultry producers are being warned bird flu could drive major losses; experts say once the deadly strain takes hold, large-scale devastation is hard to stop. In the UK, vets also urge sheep farmers to prioritise vaccination as cases rise and vaccine supplies tighten. France Water Management: Switzerland will temporarily increase outflow from Lake Lugano to Italy for ten days to support Italian rice-growing areas, cutting Lugano levels by about 10cm. EU Farm Policy Debate: In Ireland, farmers criticise EU CAP proposals that would subsidise replacement labour for holidays and sick leave as “tokenistic,” arguing food prices should reflect input costs. On-Farm Innovation: In Poland, nearly 100 sheep are grazing under a Volkswagen solar plant in Września to manage vegetation and test dual-use of land for energy and livestock.

EU Feed Rules: The European Commission updated mycotoxin guidance for poultry feed, lowering reference values and tightening expectations on monitoring and co-contamination to better prevent chronic animal-health effects. Heat & Drought Pressure: Britain is bracing for a “worst food security crisis in decades” as drought spreads and heat hits wheat, milk and vegetables, raising reliance on imports and pushing supermarket prices. Water Stress in France: France has imposed water restrictions across about 70% of the country as the drought crisis deepens, with knock-on risks for farming and river levels. Italy’s Farm Finance: Parmigiano Reggiano’s “cheese banks” are under strain as extreme heat threatens production and collateral-backed farm loans. Olive Oil Market Tensions: Spain’s COAG Jaén is demanding action over an “artificial” olive oil price drop at origin, alleging speculation and imports are forcing prices below production costs. Livestock Health Watch: Bluetongue remains a live concern, with Scotland confirming a first case as vaccination stock levels come under pressure. Agriculture & Trade: Albania is set to halt Brazilian meat imports from Sept 3 after an EU decision tied to veterinary drug concerns. Energy Costs Hit Farmers: In Britain, “constraint payments” for turning off wind farms when the grid can’t cope have reached £1bn and are feeding through to household bills.

Mediterranean Invasion Watch: Cyprus researchers say warming seas and easier Red Sea access via the Suez Canal are driving a steady influx of invasive species, with estimates of a new non-native species every two weeks and more than 1,000 already recorded—reshaping food chains and pressuring fisheries. France Water Crisis: France has imposed water restrictions covering about 70% of the country as drought bites, with aquifers dropping and tens of thousands facing tap-water cuts, adding fresh strain for farming and tourism. UK Heat & Drought: England is sliding deeper into drought conditions as flash drought spreads; heat health alerts are in place ahead of another hot spell, raising risks for crops, livestock and water supplies. Italy Cheese Under Pressure: Parmigiano Reggiano’s €4bn industry is hit by higher costs as heat forces upgrades to cooling for “cheese banks” and reduces milk output. Ireland Calf Export Shock: Ireland’s live-calf export sector faces a major blow after Brittany Ferries stops transporting calves to mainland Europe, with farmers warning of market and welfare fallout if capacity isn’t replaced. Poland Energy Cyberattack: A Polish CHP plant was disrupted via a private cellular network, showing how attackers can pivot from other sites to industrial controls. Dairy Methane Debate: New research finds public acceptance of methane-cutting feed additives depends heavily on how information is framed, with chemical options like 3-NOP facing communication hurdles. Animal Feed Stress: Ireland’s farmers’ association urges a renewed national fodder and food security committee meeting as dry weather could force early use of winter feed stocks.